Publications

Flood losses grow nonlinearly with hazard intensity. Less affluent cities face larger losses relative to GDP, while simultaneous shocks in the Yangtze River Delta amplify risk beyond the sum of isolated city-level events.

A flood is not only a local infrastructure problem. Disruption in one city can interrupt jobs, services, and supply chains elsewhere, so resilience planning needs coordination across city boundaries and additional support for less affluent places.

Lunchtime orders rose by more than 12.6% as temperatures increased from 20°C to 35°C and by 21.4% at 40°C. Lower heat exposure for consumers is, however, partly transferred to delivery riders.

Digital services can help people—especially older and more vulnerable residents—avoid dangerous heat, but that protection is not cost-free: some exposure is transferred to delivery riders. Heat adaptation must protect platform workers as well as consumers.

By 2060, projected global economic losses reach 0.6–4.6% of GDP. Indirect supply-chain disruption accounts for 12–43% of those losses and spreads impacts far beyond the hottest regions.

Extreme heat in one region can affect prices, delivery times, and jobs far away through global supply chains. Governments and businesses need to look beyond their own locations, understand supplier vulnerabilities, and prepare for disruption across the whole network.

Total losses were estimated at US$148.5 billion: 19% from capital losses, 22% from health costs, and 59% from indirect disruption. Nearly one-third of the total occurred outside California.

Wildfire damage extends far beyond the places that burn. Smoke-related illness and economic disruption can outweigh direct property losses, meaning preparedness and recovery plans must also account for downwind communities and distant economies.